Several scenarios are circulating for 2026. Under the Bayrou government, a “blank year” project was planned: no revaluation of basic pensions in order to save several billion euros.
Since the political change, this idea has not been confirmed but remains subject to debate. If the current inflation indexation rule remains in place, a moderate increase of approximately 1.2 percent could apply in January 2026, which would affect the February payment.
The final decisions will be made in the fall of 2026, when the budget and the social security financing law are voted on.
Concrete example of impact
Let’s assume a pensioner who receives 1,000 euros in basic pension and 600 euros in supplementary pension, i.e. 1,600 euros per month.
- January 2025: +2.2% on the basic pension = approx. +22 € per month or 264 € per year.
- November 2025: +0.6 to +0.8% on the surcharge = +3.60 to +4.80 € per month or 43 to 58 € per year.
In 2025, this pensioner would earn approximately €310 to €320 more.
In 2026, a 1.2% increase in the basic pension would mean approximately €12 more per month, or €144 per year. However, if there were another “blank year,” this increase would disappear.
Points of vigilance
- Risk of a bad year : Some politicians continue to consider a complete freeze on basic pensions.
- Possible under-indexation : Even if there is an increase, it could be lower than inflation, which would lead to a gradual loss of purchasing power.
- Taxation : The 10 percent tax allowance for pensions could be revised, increasing the tax burden for pensioners with incomes above certain thresholds.
- Real inflation : The main expenses of older people (energy, health, food) often rise faster than the official index, thus widening the gap between statistics and actual reality.
In summary, 2025 will see a moderate but significant appreciation, while 2026 remains a crucial year. Pensioners need to closely monitor upcoming budget announcements to anticipate the impact on their purchasing power.
